No. As the US was supplanted by Japan in consumer electronics, Japan has been subsequently supplanted by Korea and, increasingly China, in consumer electronics manufacture, including TVs. In fact, Japan has become a net importer of consumer electronics. Had the earthquake struck further south, there are some LCD component factories that could have been impacted as well as two large size LCD factories. However, these facilities seem to be undamaged.
While the loss of life is to be mourned and the loss of housing and its contents has to be replaced, most probably the net effect will be neutral as the loss of production from Japan is off-set by the loss of demand as Japan rebuilds.
If you would like to donate to the relief effort, please contact the Red Cross by clicking on the title link at the very bottom of this page.
Best Wishes
Friday, March 11, 2011
Friday, February 18, 2011
Graf Spee
By Norman Hairston
Normh@alum.mit.edu
There is an analogy that I often use to describe computing devices, they are like warships. There are Notebooks, which are something of the battleships of the current era, tablets which equate to cruisers (pretty much literally) and cell phones which are the destroyers in this rubric. Generally what defines a warship, at least in the WWI-WWII era, was how thick the armor was and how big the guns were. A battleship generally had 14-16” of armor and had 14-16” diameter guns. This was a “balanced design. Cruisers had less armor and smaller guns, generally 8” armor and up to 8” guns. Destroyers had 5” guns but only an inch of armor; they were the light and fast members of the fleet. At least until WWII they were also something of a disposable item, being used to screen the larger ships. The US built close to 800 destroyers during WWII but only 10 battleships. In my analogy, the armor, how big and heavy the ship was could be thought of as computing power while the size of the guns, the business end of the ship, can be likened to screen sizes.
Although there were general rules about the proportions of ships, guns to armor, there was also some experimentation with unbalanced designs. There were battle cruisers, gunned like a battleship, armored like a cruiser. There was the opposite, the Scharnorst class, armored like a battleship gunned like a cruiser. There were battle-carriers, battleships that had small fleets of plains, and there were the German pocket battleships, gunned like a battleship armored like a destroyer. Some of the ships with these unbalanced designs became quite famous… usually because of their sinking at the hands of more standard fare.
I am reminded of this analogy by current events in the cell phone market. As cell phones become more and more powerful, the limitations of their screens become more constricting. As a consequence, the next generation of smart phones, the Iphone 5, look to have a minimum of a 4” screen, with some being even larger. The size of the screens starts to blur the difference between what is a cell phone and what is a tablet PC with a cellular connection.
Personally, I carry my cell phone around in my pocket and the current generation of smartphones is already to large for me. The breakage issue that some smartphones have had calls to question, what is the likely breakage rate for phones with 4 and 5” screens? Even if the breakage rate were zero, again, these sizes are a bit much to carry in your pocket.
This is not to say that very large phones do not have a bright future. The marketing industry is salivating over the degree that they can push-market goods and services to smartphone owners that happen to be walking by. No doubt the revenues provided by the marketers and by those selling apps or mobile services will guarantee continued growth of the smartphone market, if not the phones themselves, for some time.
This points out the flaw in my analogy. I have likened smart phones to the pocket battleships. Of course the pocket battleships were a design failure in that they did not accomplish their goals. They didn’t last very long when confronted by ships of more conventional designs. They were rapidly obsoleted by submarines that could accomplish the same tasks with much smaller platform. However, unlike a warship that is expected to last for 20-50 years, smartphones are supposed to go down in flames after only a few years. They are built and sold with the concept that they will be obsolete in 3 years. Industries can do that when they have a continuing stream of innovation and provide consumers with compelling reasons to toss out the old and embrace the new.
While smart phones are already very big and getting bigger, I have no doubt that small will be in and the next generation of smart phones with the 5” screens will be referred to as dinosaurs. He newer larger phones will look great sliding down the ramp; but I expect that there is a right size for a mobile phone, a balanced design, and that these balanced designs will ultimately win out.
Normh@alum.mit.edu
There is an analogy that I often use to describe computing devices, they are like warships. There are Notebooks, which are something of the battleships of the current era, tablets which equate to cruisers (pretty much literally) and cell phones which are the destroyers in this rubric. Generally what defines a warship, at least in the WWI-WWII era, was how thick the armor was and how big the guns were. A battleship generally had 14-16” of armor and had 14-16” diameter guns. This was a “balanced design. Cruisers had less armor and smaller guns, generally 8” armor and up to 8” guns. Destroyers had 5” guns but only an inch of armor; they were the light and fast members of the fleet. At least until WWII they were also something of a disposable item, being used to screen the larger ships. The US built close to 800 destroyers during WWII but only 10 battleships. In my analogy, the armor, how big and heavy the ship was could be thought of as computing power while the size of the guns, the business end of the ship, can be likened to screen sizes.
Although there were general rules about the proportions of ships, guns to armor, there was also some experimentation with unbalanced designs. There were battle cruisers, gunned like a battleship, armored like a cruiser. There was the opposite, the Scharnorst class, armored like a battleship gunned like a cruiser. There were battle-carriers, battleships that had small fleets of plains, and there were the German pocket battleships, gunned like a battleship armored like a destroyer. Some of the ships with these unbalanced designs became quite famous… usually because of their sinking at the hands of more standard fare.
I am reminded of this analogy by current events in the cell phone market. As cell phones become more and more powerful, the limitations of their screens become more constricting. As a consequence, the next generation of smart phones, the Iphone 5, look to have a minimum of a 4” screen, with some being even larger. The size of the screens starts to blur the difference between what is a cell phone and what is a tablet PC with a cellular connection.
Personally, I carry my cell phone around in my pocket and the current generation of smartphones is already to large for me. The breakage issue that some smartphones have had calls to question, what is the likely breakage rate for phones with 4 and 5” screens? Even if the breakage rate were zero, again, these sizes are a bit much to carry in your pocket.
This is not to say that very large phones do not have a bright future. The marketing industry is salivating over the degree that they can push-market goods and services to smartphone owners that happen to be walking by. No doubt the revenues provided by the marketers and by those selling apps or mobile services will guarantee continued growth of the smartphone market, if not the phones themselves, for some time.
This points out the flaw in my analogy. I have likened smart phones to the pocket battleships. Of course the pocket battleships were a design failure in that they did not accomplish their goals. They didn’t last very long when confronted by ships of more conventional designs. They were rapidly obsoleted by submarines that could accomplish the same tasks with much smaller platform. However, unlike a warship that is expected to last for 20-50 years, smartphones are supposed to go down in flames after only a few years. They are built and sold with the concept that they will be obsolete in 3 years. Industries can do that when they have a continuing stream of innovation and provide consumers with compelling reasons to toss out the old and embrace the new.
While smart phones are already very big and getting bigger, I have no doubt that small will be in and the next generation of smart phones with the 5” screens will be referred to as dinosaurs. He newer larger phones will look great sliding down the ramp; but I expect that there is a right size for a mobile phone, a balanced design, and that these balanced designs will ultimately win out.
Tuesday, July 27, 2010
Temporal Resolution and 3D TV
If you are a display engineer and are describing the resolution of a TV set, to this point, there were actually three resolutions to describe: the spatial resolution or dot pitch, the chromatic resolution (brightness, number of colors), and the temporal resolution (response time). As described in my article "Rest in Peace Plasma..." in the latest issue of "High resolution", although these three resolutions are different, they are collectively fungible; you can trade off one for another. Now there is a fourth resolution, depth, where these trade-offs become important; specifically, 3D TV trades off temporal resolution to achieve 3D. Any familiarity with LCD Televisions and you will know that until this point in time temporal resolution has been a precious commodity for LCD technology. Although adequate for most content, the response time of LCDs was at best marginal for fast moving content and now the technology is taxed even more, having to display two distinct images in the same time frame where it previously could only mange one.
Plasma, on the other hand, effectively has effectively unlimited temporal resolution, much faster than human perception. The physics of the technology dictate that it will always be much better than LCD in that respect. The timing of the move to 3D, being initiated by the LCD makers is curious, as Plasma was continuously loosing marketshare to LCD and could have been well on its way to some niche category. However, Plasma's much higher resolution is starting to become noticeable to the general public. Although it is not technically described, this news report from ABC ( http://abclocal.go.com/kfsn/story?section=news/consumer&id=7570356 ) and the source Consumer Reports article highlight that the image smearing that was once only of concern to engineers is made much more noticeable to casual viewers when the display has to do the double duty of displaying two images for 3D. The subtitle to my high resolution article "Rest in Peace Plasma... Not so Fast". 3D has definitely turned the fortunes of Plasma as a technology.
Norm
Plasma, on the other hand, effectively has effectively unlimited temporal resolution, much faster than human perception. The physics of the technology dictate that it will always be much better than LCD in that respect. The timing of the move to 3D, being initiated by the LCD makers is curious, as Plasma was continuously loosing marketshare to LCD and could have been well on its way to some niche category. However, Plasma's much higher resolution is starting to become noticeable to the general public. Although it is not technically described, this news report from ABC ( http://abclocal.go.com/kfsn/story?section=news/consumer&id=7570356 ) and the source Consumer Reports article highlight that the image smearing that was once only of concern to engineers is made much more noticeable to casual viewers when the display has to do the double duty of displaying two images for 3D. The subtitle to my high resolution article "Rest in Peace Plasma... Not so Fast". 3D has definitely turned the fortunes of Plasma as a technology.
Norm
Monday, May 17, 2010
Value Based Features for a Recovery
Introduction
TV sets, providing the value that they do, set unit sales have held up and even grown during the global recession, even in hard hit locations. Beyond that the industry has introduced a number of new features during the recession that have sold well at premium and super premium price levels. Given recent history, it would be expected that the proportion of premium sets would continue to grow with a recovery. However, I suspect that this move to premium features may be temporary and due largely to differing demographics of the 2009 TV shopper rather than any mass move to upscale TV features.
While the recession has weighed heavily across virtually all demographic groups, something that should be self evident, it weighs more heavily on younger, working age people. The threat of job loss is much more pressing on working age and middle class people than those that are either wealthy enough to weather the storm or who are already retired. Consequently, the average TV shopper in 2009 was probably older than usual and has some characteristics that come with being older. With a recovery and a return of a more usual TV purchasing demographic, I expect sets with value based features to grow disproportionately as increasingly younger demographic returns in force.
Upscale Features:
With increasing age frequently comes decreasing eyesight. Consequently older shoppers are more likely to rely on published specs and advertising, rather than their own visual assessment of the sets on display. Further, these older shoppers will be less willing to re-arrange their living space to accommodate a new TV and may even have existing furniture that they would like the TV to fit in. Their TV purchase is invariably a replacement for a still working TV set. As such, their reason for buying is to upgrade capabilities rather than a purchase of basic functionality
All of these motivations feed into the current array of upscale features on flat screen TV sets that are quantifiable and easily promotable but not essential to basic TV viewing. Among these are elevated contrast ratios, refresh rates, LED backlights, and thinness. While these features will continue to be important to the consumer and to the retailer in promoting TV sales, I expect the market will shift.
Value Features:
One thing that is somewhat surprising given the drastic drop in TV set pricing has been a slower move to larger set sizes than would be expected. Again, an older purchaser is more likely to be replacing a working set and less likely to want to rearrange their living space to accommodate a larger set. As a larger proportion of younger purchasers come back into the market I expect the demand for larger sizes to grow disproportionately. Another feature that will be of great value to younger consumers is a gaming mode, essentially the ability to turn off the electronic visual enhancements in an LCD TV set. The visual enhancements require considerable processing power and time and most LCD TVs have a sound delay to compensate for the delay that results from the visual processing. For a serious gamer, the delay is more than enough to impede their performance so while gaming mode is currently a premium feature, it is costless and will become a value feature as we move forward.
A further premium feature that will rapidly become a value item is easy internet connectivity. While internet connectivity is attractive for younger consumers, the move from being a premium feature to a value will not be driven by demand to surf the net. As retailers increasingly seek to attach services to their TV set sales a base of connected sets provides a market to push video content. More importantly, as the retailers also seek to attach service contracts with set sales, the internet becomes essential. It takes an average of two truck rolls to service a malfunctioning TV; one to diagnose and one to make the actual repair. Truck rolls are expensive and if they can be replaced by remote diagnostics over the internet, the connectivity becomes significant to profitability for the service contracts.
A final premium feature that will move into value sets will be home delivery of the TV purchase. Although in the previous section, I address the expense of truck rolls, retailers have other expenses and challenges that can be reduced by home delivery, among them inventory. For the big box retailers with multiple locations in the same geographic area, the cost of maintaining separate inventories for each store can be considerable. Centralized inventories can yield considerable cost reduction. Further, absent the implementation of digital signage in their stores that inform the consumer of out-of –stocks, consumers commonly spend hours in the store picking out a set (the reason why they went to a brick and mortar retailer to begin with) only to find that the specific model they wanted is out of stock at that store. The store will commonly offer home delivery at a later date to keep the sale. With larger sizes, that no longer fit into smaller cars, at cheaper prices, home delivery for sub $1K sets will be essential. Home delivery will also allow the store to do away with individual packaging for each TV set.
Beyond the Green benefit of doing away with the box, damaged boxes are a common reason for aged inventory sitting around the store. No one wants the TV with the gouge in the box even though the sets are well protected. Manufacturers can ship to the retailers in multi-packs and the retailer can deliver from racks in their trucks much like replacement windshields are delivered for on-site windshield replacement. The combination of the greenness of doing away with the box along with home delivery also gives the brick and mortar retailers a leg up on internet sellers.
Summary:
While advanced technological features will continue to grow sales and support profitability in the TV set supply chain, the larger portion of growth in the set market will be more driven by mundane developments. The ability to turn off some of that technology as in the gaming mode, internet connectivity for remote diagnostics, included home delivery to compete with internet sales will propel sales from the TV industry’s traditional retail outlets. Younger consumers will take advantage of the bigger set for the money offered by current pricing. As with other products, a chastened population will increasingly turn to value offerings at the relative expense of luxury features.
TV sets, providing the value that they do, set unit sales have held up and even grown during the global recession, even in hard hit locations. Beyond that the industry has introduced a number of new features during the recession that have sold well at premium and super premium price levels. Given recent history, it would be expected that the proportion of premium sets would continue to grow with a recovery. However, I suspect that this move to premium features may be temporary and due largely to differing demographics of the 2009 TV shopper rather than any mass move to upscale TV features.
While the recession has weighed heavily across virtually all demographic groups, something that should be self evident, it weighs more heavily on younger, working age people. The threat of job loss is much more pressing on working age and middle class people than those that are either wealthy enough to weather the storm or who are already retired. Consequently, the average TV shopper in 2009 was probably older than usual and has some characteristics that come with being older. With a recovery and a return of a more usual TV purchasing demographic, I expect sets with value based features to grow disproportionately as increasingly younger demographic returns in force.
Upscale Features:
With increasing age frequently comes decreasing eyesight. Consequently older shoppers are more likely to rely on published specs and advertising, rather than their own visual assessment of the sets on display. Further, these older shoppers will be less willing to re-arrange their living space to accommodate a new TV and may even have existing furniture that they would like the TV to fit in. Their TV purchase is invariably a replacement for a still working TV set. As such, their reason for buying is to upgrade capabilities rather than a purchase of basic functionality
All of these motivations feed into the current array of upscale features on flat screen TV sets that are quantifiable and easily promotable but not essential to basic TV viewing. Among these are elevated contrast ratios, refresh rates, LED backlights, and thinness. While these features will continue to be important to the consumer and to the retailer in promoting TV sales, I expect the market will shift.
Value Features:
One thing that is somewhat surprising given the drastic drop in TV set pricing has been a slower move to larger set sizes than would be expected. Again, an older purchaser is more likely to be replacing a working set and less likely to want to rearrange their living space to accommodate a larger set. As a larger proportion of younger purchasers come back into the market I expect the demand for larger sizes to grow disproportionately. Another feature that will be of great value to younger consumers is a gaming mode, essentially the ability to turn off the electronic visual enhancements in an LCD TV set. The visual enhancements require considerable processing power and time and most LCD TVs have a sound delay to compensate for the delay that results from the visual processing. For a serious gamer, the delay is more than enough to impede their performance so while gaming mode is currently a premium feature, it is costless and will become a value feature as we move forward.
A further premium feature that will rapidly become a value item is easy internet connectivity. While internet connectivity is attractive for younger consumers, the move from being a premium feature to a value will not be driven by demand to surf the net. As retailers increasingly seek to attach services to their TV set sales a base of connected sets provides a market to push video content. More importantly, as the retailers also seek to attach service contracts with set sales, the internet becomes essential. It takes an average of two truck rolls to service a malfunctioning TV; one to diagnose and one to make the actual repair. Truck rolls are expensive and if they can be replaced by remote diagnostics over the internet, the connectivity becomes significant to profitability for the service contracts.
A final premium feature that will move into value sets will be home delivery of the TV purchase. Although in the previous section, I address the expense of truck rolls, retailers have other expenses and challenges that can be reduced by home delivery, among them inventory. For the big box retailers with multiple locations in the same geographic area, the cost of maintaining separate inventories for each store can be considerable. Centralized inventories can yield considerable cost reduction. Further, absent the implementation of digital signage in their stores that inform the consumer of out-of –stocks, consumers commonly spend hours in the store picking out a set (the reason why they went to a brick and mortar retailer to begin with) only to find that the specific model they wanted is out of stock at that store. The store will commonly offer home delivery at a later date to keep the sale. With larger sizes, that no longer fit into smaller cars, at cheaper prices, home delivery for sub $1K sets will be essential. Home delivery will also allow the store to do away with individual packaging for each TV set.
Beyond the Green benefit of doing away with the box, damaged boxes are a common reason for aged inventory sitting around the store. No one wants the TV with the gouge in the box even though the sets are well protected. Manufacturers can ship to the retailers in multi-packs and the retailer can deliver from racks in their trucks much like replacement windshields are delivered for on-site windshield replacement. The combination of the greenness of doing away with the box along with home delivery also gives the brick and mortar retailers a leg up on internet sellers.
Summary:
While advanced technological features will continue to grow sales and support profitability in the TV set supply chain, the larger portion of growth in the set market will be more driven by mundane developments. The ability to turn off some of that technology as in the gaming mode, internet connectivity for remote diagnostics, included home delivery to compete with internet sales will propel sales from the TV industry’s traditional retail outlets. Younger consumers will take advantage of the bigger set for the money offered by current pricing. As with other products, a chastened population will increasingly turn to value offerings at the relative expense of luxury features.
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