Smellivision

In April 2011, I published an article in High Resolution entitled "Smellivision vs. OTT". The article concludes, "In general, with so many new, excellent devices for viewing video, the living room TV sets would benefit from expanding on what cannot be done in a mobile setting, raising the bar for the viewing experience, providing a more engrossing experience. That already happens with the better sound that is available. Development of other features, possible smell, most certainly wider aspect ratios, would be of benefit as well. With Best Buy’s decision to expand their mobile device stores and downsize some of their main store square footage, it seems that the mobile device is on the rise at the expense of the conventional TV. While 3DTV is the current excitement and 3D can be a differentiator between fixed and mobile viewing, I feel that something else would be beneficial." The full article is available from Veritas et Visus. What I said about 3D goes double for 4K.

After I wrote the article, I saw some reports of researchers in Korea working on a Smellivision product. Now HP and Intel are doing likewise but for the digital signage market. Actually, as with other technologies, having a revenue stream behind it might mean that this technology as well gets pioneered in digital signage before finding its way into consumer TV. 4K makes more sense for signage than as a consumer product. No doubt other technologies will follow this path as well.

Glass is Hard Pt III

Two extreme stories regarding glass chemistry. In the first, after bringing in a new furnace (the furnace had been torn down and rebuilt with new brick, this must be done periodically) the glass coming out of the furnace was foaming. It was full of bubbles. After more than a month of researching the problem, someone though to ask the old melter (the person in charge of running that furnace) about the problem; he had retired between the last rebuild and this one. He had no idea about what to do, but he did comment that whenever he brought in a new furnace, he always through a silver dollar in for luck. In the second story, one of the company’s CRT making glass furnaces suddenly started have well above average product breakage at the customer. Coincidentally, they also had a problem with their glass molds; molds that were supposed to last for weeks were lasting only days.

The first story was told to me and may be apocryphal, the second, I actually witnessed and was a participant in reaching resolution. They were both essentially the same problem. In the first story, it can be hard to appreciate, but commonly parts per billion of some element or another, can have a large effect in stabilizing or processing the glass. Much of glass development is taken up not with developing new glass chemistries but in determining how a glass will react with the impurities it picks up from the furnace. Parts per billion, below the resolution limit of most x-ray machines commonly used for measuring glass chemistry, can have a determining effect on the glass suitability for a particular application. In the second story, one of the recouperators, the part of a glass furnace that captures the heat and sends it back to the furnace, had collapsed and the furnace was being fired with just one recouperator. Although the glass chemistry as was closely monitored before and after the collapse, the glass chemistry measurements usually do not include one of the most important elements, Oxygen. When the recouperator collapsed the melter changed the way he fired the furnace with changed the oxidation state of the glass. The glass chemistry before and after the change was the same but no one was looking at the oxygen.

Fusion glass, used as LCD substrates, is made in platinum lined furnaces to minimize an impact refractory contamination can have. However, raw materials can still have a huge impact. For most "dirt is dirt and sand is sand" however for glass and ceramic making, many times, even when the mining location is changed within the same mine, it means requalifying the process.

LCD v. OLED TV

When no one had heard of an LCD, the companies developing the technology, RCA and Westinghouse, were both TV makers and the objective was to build a TV with the technology. However, we would still not LCD TVs today if it were not for the notebook computer providing a product that could not be made without it. The notebook provided a high valued product that could afford the LCD price tag ($1000 for a 10.4") while the industry cost reduced and perfected the product for consumer TV. Actually, the path was notebook, then monitors, then TV.

The fact that the public has gotten used to the idea of a flat panel does not make it easier for OLED technology, it makes it harder in that their is already a product there that is very cheap and its performance is more than fine. Even though OLED visual performance will be better, no one is unhappy with current LCD performance.

What will make OLED technology and what will eventually make an OLED TV commonplace will not be the immediate application of the technology to TV but an application not currently served by LCD; most probably a new product or new form factor that takes advantage of OLED's ability to be made as a flexible or fracture resistant display.... Dick Tracy's watch or some sort of wearable device. Once volume is generated form this new application, OLED can come down in price and be a TV.

4K & Osborne Effect

Once again, the movie makers are giving advice to the TV industry about how to run the TV business. Taking the theatrical cinema folk's advice about home TV, even home theater is why the TV industry spent so much time hyping 3D well before its time. A basic premise in the article is incorrect regarding TV sizes. In general, the public had found its way to sitting at the retina limiting distance for standard definition TV. In the transition to HDTV, with twice as many scan lines, they had to either get a set that is twice as tall or sit half the distance to still be at the retina limiting distance. Instead, the public mainly bought 32" wide screens that are exactly the same height as a 27" square screen and sat at the same distance. Since the transition, the average size LCD TV has crept up from a 32W to a 38W. The public is still not taking advantage of HDTV resolution, let alone doubling it again.

Normally, I would not be one to criticize the industry regarding anything done to increase profitability in what is largely a profitless business. However, sometimes the things that are done to increase ASPs actually discourage sales. In the early 1990's TV set sales were depressed by talk of HDTV. The discussion in the press about the new standard lead people to believe that HDTV was just around the corner and many postponed buying a TV set thinking that they should wait and get an HDTV. Talk of a new standard frequently discourages sales of current models. This is known as Osborn effect for Adam Osborne driving his own company out of business talking about the next model Osborne Computer, that wasn't ready, and consequently not being able to sell the current one. I believe that 3D had a similarly chilling effect. And now comes 4K.

As I said in a previous post, 4K will be a great boon the digital signage. No doubt it will garner some consumer sales as well. However the net effect on total consumer sales dollars will be minimal if it is positive at all. Currently, widespread realease of 5G smartphones is not expected until 2020. However, whith smartphone prices climbing into the $1000 range, sales of 4G smartphones during 2019 may be impacted by consumers postponing purchases to get the new 5G technology.